Future change
Ocean warming and acidification has created a large following in marine ecology. Our work shows that the effects go much deeper than simple direct effects, but maybe more ammenable to managment than what current thinking allows.
The future of ecological functions
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Ocean acidification and warming is changing
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These joint abiotic effects among trophic groups is unequal
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The capacity for particular trophic levels to meet their metablic demainds varies
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The capacity for long-term acclimiation does not look as promising as first thought
Nagelkerken, I and Connell, S. D. 2015. Global alteration of ocean ecosystem functioning due to increasing human CO2 emissions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 122: 13272-13277.
Local managment can reverse the effects of climate change
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By reducing local pollution, the effects of CO2 can be reduced
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Co-limitations between carbon and nitrogen, cause a codependency
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By reducing N, the effect of CO2 is mitigated and competitive hierarchies normalise
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Global climate is not under the governance of most managers, but local managment is
Falkenberg, Connell, Russell 2013. Disrupting the effects of synergies between stressors: improved water quality dampens the effects of future CO2 on a marine habitat. Journal of Applied Ecology 50:51-58.
Falkenberg, Russell, Connell 2013. Contrasting resource limitations of marine primary producers: implications for competitive interactions under enriched CO2 and nutrient regimes. Oecologia 172:575-583.
Ocean warming as a refuge for some species
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Metabolic Theory of Ecology (MTE): warming increases metabolic activity up to a threashold
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Greater energetic demand requires more food for herbivores & photosynthesis for plants
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We tested the MTE prediction that warming leads to an increase in trophic control
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We discovered the reverse; competitive plants escape control by herbivores
Mertens, Russell, & Connell. in press. Escaping herbivory: ocean warming as a refuge for primary producers where consumer metabolism and consumption cannot pursue. Oecologia.
Carbon dioxide as a resource for change
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Ocean acidification results from absorbtion of atmopsheric CO2
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As a resource for plants, CO2 brings unequal benefits among species
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Weedy species benefit more than kelp, particularly under elevated temperature
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These subordinate species turn dominant and local pollution supercharges this reversal
Connell, S. D. and B. D. Russell. 2010. The direct effects of increasing CO2 and temperature on non-calcifying organisms: increasing the potential for phase shifts in kelp forests. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 277:1409-1415.
Connell, S. D., Kroeker, Fabricius, et al. 2013. The other ocean acidification problem: CO2 as a resource among competitors for ecosystem dominance. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 368:20120442.